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An event is a collection of outcomes associated with some activity. The probability of an event is a measure of how likely the event is to occur. The higher the probability of the event, the more likely the event is to occur. In many practical situations the outcomes that comprise an event are elementary outcomes. These are outcomes that cannot be further subdivided into simpler outcomes.
In these cases, the probability of the event can be found by dividing the number of outcomes favorable to the event by the total number of outcomes possible.
We are assuming that the number of outcomes possible is finite. Suppose you shuffle a deck of cards and randomly draw one card. Let E be the event of drawing an ace. A deck has 52 cards, including 4 aces. To minimize the chance of making mistakes, you should ensure that the outcomes you choose to look at are elementary outcomes. The next example illustrates this. Flip two coins simultaneously. What is the probability of a mismatch?
Thus, the a , b , and c outcomes are not equally likely. Imagine that one of the two coins is painted red on its head and tail sides and the other is painted green on both sides. Then the elementary outcomes are given by this table. There are 38 numbers on an American roulette wheel. The numbers zero and double-zero are both green. Half of the other numbers are red, and the rest are black. If you bet on black, what is your probability of winning?
Instead of discussing the probability of an event, it is sometimes more convenient to talk about the odds in favor of or the odds against an event. Probabilities and odds are simply two different ways of measuring the same thing, namely, how likely it is for the event in question to occur. The odds in favor of and the odds against are reciprocally related. For example, if the odds against something are 3 to 2, then the odds in favor of it are 2 to 3.